Long gone are the days when online betting was related only to sports and casino games. Reputable bookmakers such as William Hill, Betfair, Betvictor, Skybet, SBK, and others follow the latest trends and accept wagers on numerous election outcomes, early termination of government mandates, and more entertaining topics like the name of the unborn child of some royal person for example. For better or for worse, sometimes data originating from political betting odds happen to be more precise than the results from official politics-related polls. Policymaking has an impact on every aspect of our daily lives and that is why it is increasingly coming out as a category to bet on.
The more extreme a politician is and the more outlandish his behaviour, the greater is the interest in him. No one knows this better than Boris Johnson, the flamboyant prime minister of the United Kingdom, who achieved a landslide victory in the local elections just almost three years ago. Bookies are now accepting bets not on whether he will resign, but when. Judging by the betting odds provided by the best online bookmakers, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson does not have much time left on 10 Downing Street. How did he manage to go from hosanna to crucifixion in such a short time?
Johnson’s Political Career So Far
Being a gaffe-prone is part of Boris Johnson’s political biography long before he stepped on the highest level of the country’s governing. His first contact with politics dates back to 1994 when he began working as a political columnist in The Spectator magazine. His ambition, expressiveness, and erudition made him the media’s editor five years later. By the same time, Johnson was already a member of the UK Conservative party and was even appointed as its candidate for Clwyd South in the House of Commons, where he was defeated by the Labour Party representative Martyn Jones. For quite some time Boris Johnson parallelly managed a journalistic and political career. Due to his racy behaviour and the inability to bite his tongue, he became popular both with his appearances on TV shows and participation in ardent parliamentary debates.
It appears that the UK political scene needed such a figure since in 2001 Boris Johnson won the contest in the Henley-on-Thames constituency and officially entered the British Parliament. US-born Johnson worked hard to gain a reputation as a serious and credible politician. His efforts were successful and in May 2008 he became mayor of London in competition with Ken Livingstone. A proof that the victory in the mayoral elections was not luck or a whim of fate came in 2012 when Boris Johnson was reelected. According to some critics at that time, the ambitions of Johnson for personal political success surpassed his involvement as cockney’s mayor.
Will “Partygate” End Boris Johnson’s March Forward?
The attitude towards great political figures can never be unambiguous, this is how human nature is set up. Sometimes it is necessary to introduce measures that, although absolutely necessary, are met with hostility by the population and often cost the position of the relevant leading politician. However, Boris Johnson’s currently threatened political career does not fit into this principle condition.
Will Johnson once again be able to get out of the situation in which he personally put himself? If in the end, he is forced to resign as prime minister, it will not be because of his policies, but because he has not complied with the restrictions he has imposed on others. Worst of all, he did this in a particularly ostentatious manner offending the citizens.
In the last few months, British and global media have been publishing or broadcasting reports related to the conduct of parties in Downing Street while strict pandemic restrictions were in force. History has shown us many cases when this type of frivolous behaviour not only was not to the detriment of the politician but can even arouse sympathy. However, things are a way different when you only have the right to go to a grocery store, a pharmacy, and a hospital, when you are not even allowed to attend the funeral of a loved one, and the one who imposed the rules is having fun undisturbed.
EXCL: Police have a photo of Boris Johnson holding a can of a beer at his lockdown birthday party in June 2020 – taken by his taxpayer funded official photographer.https://t.co/9mr7GiRbnK
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) February 4, 2022
Politicians should never underestimate the emotional impact of their actions on the population since it is capable of turning the situation upside down even in a country as conservative and traditional as the United Kingdom. A report prepared by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant, puts light on how things were going on 10 Downing Street during the lockdown in 2020 and gives information about 16 private events.
At least some of the gatherings in question represent a serious failure to observe not just the high standards expected of those working at the heart of Government but also of the standards expected of the entire British population at the time.
The Metropolitan Police found 12 of these social meetings significant enough to initiate an investigation. An extremely wrong move by Boris Johnson was that at first he was either denying there were such parties or was trying to minimise their importance. This angered not only his opponents, but also his party members, and some of them contacted the media to tell how they were prevented from performing their duties or personal commitments due to any of the gatherings in question.
I didn’t see my mum for 18 months after the death of my father. I wanted to protect her from Covid. I care about #PartyGate @BorisJohnson @danny__kruger pic.twitter.com/SUc1XDLhSr
— 👁🗨Steve 🇬🇷🇪🇺💙 #European (@poorscousertom) February 9, 2022
So it’s not just about some parties, but about the care and adequate attitude that a prime minister shows to the country’s population.
The Apology
It seems that Boris Johnson has realised the seriousness of the situation and abandoned the approach to deny all allegations (or was advised to do so). On 31 January 2022, he made an oral statement to the Parliament on Sue Gray’s report in which he generally apologised to the nation and presented his plans for change:
… it is not enough to say sorry. This is a moment when we must look at ourselves in the mirror and we must learn. And while the Metropolitan Police must yet complete their investigation – and that means there are no details of specific events in Sue Gray’s report – I, of course, accept Sue Gray’s general findings in full, and above all her recommendation that we must learn from these events and act now.
In his speech, Mr. Johnson extensively discusses the report and links its key findings with measures to be taken. In response to the conclusion of the “fragmented and complicated” leadership structures of Downing Street, the PM initiates the creation of Office of the Prime Minister, with a special secretary who must make sure that proper discipline is observed within the building. No more “Wine Time Fridays” as officials have to implement Ms. Gray’s recommendations for “a clear and robust policy in place covering the consumption of alcohol in the workplace.”
Has he taken responsibility?
Lots of we’s not many I’s
Ignores the “failure in leadership” & focuses on “complicated structures”.
Structures don’t lead to Wine Friday’s. Culture does.
& then he ends with 4 paras of party political broadcasting.https://t.co/MFK1mI9r9T
— jonathan ward (@rumbarba) February 2, 2022
It was in this unstable situation that on February 9 Boris Johnson announced the news all Brits had been waiting for so long – any remaining Covid-related measures will be terminated by the end of the current month. Although this is met with enthusiasm by thousands of people in the United Kingdom, there are many sceptics who believe that the decision is not based on real facts, but aims to save the skin of Boris Johnson. If restrictions really come to an end, the change will only affect England since Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland have their own separate Covid measures.
Possible Moves Of The Conservative Party
Despite his ongoing attempts to regain the trust of the electorate, more and more opponents are accumulating on Mr. Johnson’s account. Many of his current supporters believe it is in the Conservative Party’s interest for the PM to resign. According to UK legislation, if the prime minister’s party has a parliamentary majority, it has the right to expel its leader and thus change the PM without general elections.
The internal party’s procedure requires a binding vote of no confidence to be held. It can be initiated if at least 54 Parliament members file confidential formal request letters. In case the vote is unsuccessful, the prime minister’s opponents will have to wait for a year before they can conduct another no-confidence vote. At least for now, however, a relatively small number of the Conservative party members have expressed willingness to proceed with such a step.
Is it possible to force Boris Johnson to resign by himself? Judging by the experience of his predecessors, yes, it is. No matter how powerful and self-assertive a prime minister is, governing a country is a teamwork and when there is a lack of 100% support, the soil under his feet becomes unstable. Mr. Johnson is very well aware of this fact since he was one of the ministers who left Theresa’s May cabinet and thus gave a push to her resignation.
Although not insignificant, these relinquishments are not as indicative as the one of Munira Mirza, who is often called Boris Johnson’s brain. She has worked with the PM for more than 10 years being his chief policy adviser. In her sharp resignation letter published by The Spectator, Ms. Mirza expressed her great disappointment over the false claim of the prime minister that the Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer did not prosecute serial sex offender Jimmy Savile while Starmer was the head of the Crown Prosecution Service.
Big blow for Boris Johnson. No 10 policy chief Munira Mirza, at his side since City Hall, quits over Jimmy Savile slur: “This was not the usual cut & thrust of politics; it was an inappropriate & partisan reference to a horrendous case of child sex abuse.” https://t.co/uy8cYmZP0p
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) February 3, 2022
Munira Mirza also says that Boris Johnson should have explicitly apologised not just tried to clarify his position as “There was no fair or reasonable basis for that assertion”. Her words sound rational and her act of resignation seems logical. However, Ms. Mirza has worked with the prime minister for 14 years and this is definitely not his first manifestation of inappropriate behaviour. Why is she leaving now? Some assumptions have already appeared, but we will tell you more about them when the successor of Boris Johnson becomes clear. If this happens soon of course.
Betting Odds On Boris Johnson’s Resignation
With so much turmoil in Downing Street, it is no wonder bookmakers are already accepting bets on when will Mr. Johnson resign. Nevertheless, we advise you not to rush to place your bet since this is not the first time BoJo is in trouble. His career so far is full of ups and downs, dismissals, and even humiliating situations, all of them being followed by spectacular triumphs. It is for a reason that David Cameron called Boris Johnson a “greased piglet” several years ago, he somehow manages always to get away and benefit from even the most hopeless situation.
What is more, for Mr. Johnson to hand in his resignation, someone has to officially request that. And that someone has still not shown up. The contenders of Boris Johnson within the Conservative Party are not just one or two but they must play their cards very carefully and act at the right moment unless they want to face the risk of being seen as disloyal. The Conservative lawmakers are still trying to decide whether a change at this moment would really help the party. Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, and the other pretenders are yet to prove they can show just as strong an appeal as the one that led the party to an undisputed victory in 2019.
According to YouGov, a global public opinion and data company, the approval rating of Boris Johnson has dramatically dropped down from the levels in 2019. His negative score is currently exceeding 73%.
If we take a look at British politics betting odds, it turns out that the vast majority of politically oriented punters will place their bets on Boris Johnson leaving Downing Street this year. The other option would be for the prime minister to retain his position a little longer but still resign in 2023 before the next General Elections. According to the averaged bookmakers odds, Mr. Johnson is unlikely to stay in office until 2024 or later. Only 6% of the bets are placed on this option.
| When Will Boris Johnson Resign? | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | William Hill | BetVictor | Betfred | SBK | Smarkets | Parimatch | |
| In 2022 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.36 | 1.5 | 1.63 | 1.6 | 1.36 |
| In 2023 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| 2024 or later | 3.55 | 3.75 | 4.0 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.55 | 4.0 |
*Odds may vary from the date of writing
**This information is provided for informative purposes only and does not promote gambling activities
- Author
Olivia Cole
